, it is evident that if R_0 is decreased by 90% of the present value, there is a possibility of new cases around 24,517 (95% CI: 18,300–26,322). Therefore, we performed other projections on the decrease of different R_0 percentages (90%, 80%, and 70%).Ĭumulative case outcomes (left) and Daily reproduction cases (Right) for R_0 = 2.83. These actions can help them control the pandemic as they did in March. The infectious disease control board of Italy is planning to apply again controlling measures like curfew in nights, closing of bars, theatres, and encourage online education. However, it is a well-known fact that a new epidemic size has relied on R_0. The projections concluded that at the end of the 45th day the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI 73,201–100,352) and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234–16,197). If the R_0 is kept remains the same in the upcoming days, the total case projections were mentioned in Fig. This got suspect because of the volume of cases, prompting the breakdown of medical services frameworks and deficient testing offices at that stage, just as developing case definitions. , we estimated the R_0 of phase 2 COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and is equal to 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5–4.2) which is higher than the first reproduction value (R_0 = 2.2) observed in Wuhan by the result of direct contact tracing. Also, we projected the country epidemic size under different R_0 values. In this study, we modelled the latest COVID-19 outbreak of Italy and estimate the reproduction number (R_0) status of the present epidemic. This proves that Italy becoming the latest European nation for announcing new measures for stopping the spread of novel corona virus. However, from October situation seems out of control because of the appearance of 247,369 (as of 27 October) new cases only in this month. In the second half of August, cases started to rise again with more than 6000 cases per week. After these mitigation measures, the epidemic curve has appeared steadily till July. When the first COVID-19 epidemic has raised to start in March, the Italian government announced a serious lockdown to control the pandemic severity. Italy is also not exceptional for this condition. Most of the countries are already declared that a high number of daily cases are recording now than they seemed during the first epidemic wave of the year 2020. The European countries are exposing to the resurgence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases after effectively controlling the early outbreaks this year.
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